off with the headlines. the race to the white house starts here. candidates matching their final hours of campaigning. in iowa they have their caucus vote in a few hours time. virus officially declared a global health emergency, the latest from the world health organization, amid fears that the mosquito-borne illnesses causing a serious birth defect in latin america. an red carpet, a state dinner,
but what about human rights? we are finding more about the cuban president's visit to paris, the first by a cuban leader in two decades, and some say important issues are not being raised. catherine: you could say that the race to the white house officially starts today. in just a few hours time, voters in the state of iowa will get the chance to say who they want as candidates in this year's presidential election. we go to the capital of iowa, des moines. , dressed in frantic campaigning, but let's talk about the likely outcomes. what are the predictions from the polls? there are all sorts of
polls out there and they are slightly contradictory, which makes it difficult for us and other experts to predict what will happen. oll from viable p "the des moines register," that puts donald trump a head ted cruz on the republican side, meaning we are looking at the real possibility of donald trump winning his first election contest here in the united states. on the democratic side, that first poll what hillary clinton just about ahead of bernie sanders, the senator from vermont, but there is another ball from quinnipiac that puts sanders ahead of clinton. what this means is bernie sanders has gone from absolute nobody to somebody who could really win these iowa caucuses here on monday evening local time. we could see the absolute outsider from six months ago, more or less when they announced their campaigns, donald trump and bernie sanders, winning the iowa caucuses. catherine: whoever does come out on top tonight will still have a
pretty long way to go before they get to being an official presidential candidate. can you tell us about what happens next? philip: all sorts of other primaries and caucuses is like the one we see an iowa tonight. the next one will be the new hampshire primary. that is in just one week's time. the iowa caucuses of the first election contest in the united states some of the person we really hear from americans who say who they would like their respective party's nominee to be my comes to the election in november. what the iowa caucuses do is give a serious boost to whoever wins. we have example of that in the past. senator barack obama won the iowa caucuses in 2008 and we know where he ended up in the end. there are counterexamples as well. look what happened on the republican side four years ago. it was rick santorum who one, and his campaign for the white house went downhill from there.
eight years ago it was my cup to become a former governor of arkansas. it is not us -- it was mike huckabee, the former governor of arkansas. it is not necessarily a bellwether, but those who do badly in iowa have a problem going forward, and that was the case for hillary clinton, who was the absolute favorite to win everything when she first made it official that she was running for president. that could go wrong as early as this monday. catherine: before we let you go, there has been talk of storms in iowa disrupting the voting process. just behind you, though, looks pretty blue sky, unstormy right now. philip: it is gorgeous out here but there was that prediction for a possible snowstorm. it looks like what happened after the caucasus actually end, which is good news for the likes of paul clement bernie sanders, -- donald trump and bernie sanders, because who they really need to go to the caucuses are young voters, those who have never voted before.
that is why the weather is important. meanwhile, it is very nice here. catherine: excellent. hope it continues for you. philip crowther, our correspondent from des moines. we can look a bit closer at the significance of those votes in ofa with a professor political science at hospira university in new york. -- hofstra university in new york. the candidates are combating the socks off but iowa is one of 50 american states. can you tell us why today's so very important? >> this is the first in the nation contest, first time that candidates go head-to-head, and the public is actually able to respond by voting. , theerson who does well candidates who do well, who meet or exceed expectations set by the media, they tend to get a bounce from they tend to get momentum that hopefully will carry them through subsequent states. catherine: speaking of
subsequent states from starting off and i were the next vote will happen in new hampshire -- starting off in iowa, the next vote will happen in new hampshire. these are small state operations that are not ethnically representative of the wider united states. considering that, why do they get to go first and why should what their voters decide impact what happens nationally? the "whoyou just asked died and left iowa and new hampshire boss?" question. primaries and caucuses were not much of a big deal and these two states planted the aggressively asserted their right to hold the first in the nation caucuses and primaries. when candidates come to the state come they are asked "do you support iowa and new hampshire continuing to be first in the nation?" candidates who say no and tell these states to go to hell find
that they have a hard time doing well in these states and they don't have a particularly successful presidential campaign. catherine: speaking of the candidates, there are plenty of them in these races, from both parties, especially on the republican side. how quickly do you think might see the field whittled down to the serious final few contenders, if i can put it that way? richard: i think that by the meampshire is over next week, we are going to be down to around 4 candidates on the republican side. i think after tonight's results in iowa, you are likely going to see the candidates that are more oriented towards religious people. that would be carson, that would be central in, that would be huckabee -- that would be santorum, that would be huckabee . after new hampshire you will see the established candidates -- probably john kasich, chris christie. and then i think ron paul -- excuse me, rand paul, is likely
to leave, as will carly fearing a bit what's new hampshire is over -- as will carly fiorina. what's new hampshire is over, you will have donald trump, marco rubio, and jeb bush hanging on by his fingernails. he is going to compete through south carolina, the next big contest after the first two. he will exit and there will probably be a three-man race from there on out. catherine: just a brief order that the democratic party candidates and having to full establishment candidates, beenry clinton, who has first lady and secretary of state, and bernie sanders, who some are calling a cool grandpa, appealing to the more hipster vote. between thosepick 2. do you think the democratic party race might go on longer? richard: it really depends. i think tonight's contest is important.
if bernie sanders could pull off a victory in iowa, he is likely to win new hampshire next week. that would really set hillary clinton on her heels. she has the organization, she has money, she has set up what is called a firewall and south carolina and southern states, where she thinks she will be able to hold off a sanders challenge. nevertheless, if bernie sanders wins and he is likely to in your mentor next week, that will enough that -- likely to win a new mentor next week, that will knock clinton off and it will cost southern states to reconsider whether hillary clinton is the inevitable nominee. catherine: a lot to play for. thank you for giving us your thoughts. as richard h -- professor richard himelfarb speaking to us from hofstra university in new york. we will be staying up all night to bring special coverage do you ive on "france 24."
let's move on to the rest of the day's international news. at least 20 people are known to a guide in a bomb attack in kabul today according to the afghan interior ministry. the blast struck at a police academy at around lunchtime. the spokesman saying earlier that most of those killed and injured were civilians. humanitarian demands are taking center stage at -- a high-level talks on the future of syria. members of various opposition packs telling the one that eight issues for the stricken population have to be sorted out before they will join full peace talks. discuss withre to a special envoy the resolution 2254, you know, lifting the siege and stopping the crimes done by russian airstrikes in syria.
very believe we received positive messages from the special envoy and tomorrow, you will -- he will have a meeting with the regime side and we will wait for a reply from him. caerine: now, the zika virus ouak in tin america is officially a global health emergency. independent health experts making that designation at the world health organization in geneva today. in recent months, doctors have suggested that the mosquito borne illness could be behind the birth defects seen in thousands of babies in the americas in recent months. for now there was no scientific certainty of the link. here is the head of the world health organization explaining today's decision. >> in assessing the level of threat, 18 experts and advisers looked in particular at the
strong association in time and space between infection with the zika virus and a rise in detecting cases of congenital malformations and a neurological complications. all agree on the urgency to coordinate international efforts to investigate and understand this relationship better. catherine: earlier, the world health organization spokesperson spoke to "france 24" from geneva. he told us why the body feels it is important to investigate the zika outbreak further. >> what happens really is in the past couple of months we have had the zika virus circulating in south america for the first time. we have had a population that has immunity to this virus. and cases -- that has no immunity to this virus and cases were reported early as may last year.
what really changed is likable months ago in november, brazil started -- i couple months ago in november, brazil started to report an increase in it neurological malformation with newborn babies, especially microcephaly. this happened at the same time as the zika virus was infecting people in brazil but also other places in south america. this is really something that immediately raised questions not only among health specialists but also a lot of concern among population, and it was really into what who to look really is going on, what evidence is available, and what more evidence we need to establish this link between the logical disorders with the newport -- neurological disorders with a newborn babies zika virus. cubantherine: the
president is in paris kicking off a new chapter in his country's relations with france. raul castro is the first leader from his country to visit france in 21 years. he and francois hollande are currently at a state dinner. we follow the visit and criticism that human rights issues have not been brought up adequately by french officials. reporter: there has been very little mention of that, katherine, but there will be some people who will be keenly critical of the fact that so little was said. according to doctors without borders, cuba is on a list of 169 down the list in terms of its record on press freedoms and since the beginning of the process in the end of 20 14 between a van washington, reporters without borders says things have gotten worse for journalists on the island, that there have been more arrests and arbitrary detentions and that far from improving, things are going from bad to worse. no mention of that today. francois hollande talking
business with his counterparts of these historical, ideological ties between cuba and at the dinner going on at the palace behind me right now. a motley crew of people who have been invited. a number of left-wing personalities, reminder of the ideological ties that bind the communist country with the older parts of france's socialist party. they may have, been trafficked into slavery or the sex trade. european police believe that thousands of migrant children have gone missing in europe over the last two years. charities are calling for more to be done to safeguard under-18s entering. reporter: they're considered the most vulnerable among asylum seekers. last year alone some 26,000 risk theired minors
life to reach europe, going to save the children. now the u.n. relief agency says 10,000 migrants will disappear the last 2 years, according to the observer. half went missing in italy alone and another thousand in sweden. these are conservative estimates come back on it for only those who have been registered at the point of entry in to europe. some are believed to have joined their families. many are feared to a fallen prey to criminal organizations and gotten sexually exploited or forced into slavery. many of those disappeared are teenagers. the entiresays that criminal of instructor has developed around exploiting the migrant flow over the past 18 months, and that there is evidence of links between smuggling rings bringing people into europe and criminal gangs on the continent. ngos and local authorities have been concerned about the issues and are giving special attention to minors and refugee centers. >> organizations like save the children are cooperating with
local authorities to establish child friendly spaces. these are state spaces where children find refuge and are protected from exploitation and abuse, and where they get psychological care. most of the children arriving in europe are deeply traumatized by what they have been through. reporter: overwhelmingly the refugees are migrants fleeing the war in syria last year. the flight of -- flight of underage migrants traveling without their families is one of most pressing issues in the ongoing crisis. catherine: arts and culture news for you now. here in paris we have museums galore but we don't have any quite like this . this is your -- europe's first ever underwater museum. doctors in total were lowered into the sea and they will be joined by 270 others. if you are wondering how you the exhibits are
not very deep. are locatedey at total of 15 meters most. a quarter past 9:00 in the evening here in paris. let's give you a reminder of the headlines. the rest to the white house officially starts here. tenet it's notching up their final frantic hours of campaigning in the state of iowa ahead of caucus votes in a few hours time. now officiallyis a global health emergency. that is the latest from the world health organization. amid fears of the mosquito borne illness causing serious birth defects in latin america. a state dinner, but what about human rights? we are finding more about the cuban president's visit to inis, the first visit years and actors are saying that import rights issues are not being adequately raised. we will stick with that story of raul castro's visit to paris as
we turn to business news. of course, human rights issues are brought up by some activists . principally a trade on economic -- trade and economic visit for the cuban president. >> a lot of money to look at here as well. we're seeing concrete amounts on tourism, transport, and fair trade goods. paris is that it will forgive some of havana's debt and put the money into an investment fund. reporter: getting cuba back on its feet, france loves to be the island's biggest partner in no longer that it is a prion the world stage. on monday, president francois hollande and raul castro announced a franco-cuban fun. president castro: we have set up a fund that promotes trade and
commerce, cooperation, and investment, in the near and distant future. reporter: the 212 million euro -five will speed up french business projects in cuba overseen by france's development agency. the money comes from part of cuba's debt to france from estimated at 4 billion euros. in december, france led efforts to get international creditors to forgive cuba's overdue interest payments, just over a year after the u.s. for diplomatic ties with the communist island -- renewed diplomatic ties with the communist island. hollande: we want to go even further. development,rban agribusiness -- all sectors are now open for trade. reporter: currently only around 30 french companies are present
in cuba. commercial exchange's amount to some 180 million euros last year. political and economic reawakening continues, it is set to become the caribbean's largest economy. kate: they may not have gotten around to talking very much about controversial and lucrative one, rum. bacardi filed a lawsuit over these of the name "havana club." it has been used in europe and elsewhere by a french group. rdi itself left cuba in 1960 after the rise of fidel castro and sells its own right--in the own rum ines -- its the united states. another company that country, rather, opening up to the international stage again is iran. tehran said that nine of its
banks will be connected to the global transaction network that links lenders around the world. the society for worldwide interface telecommunications is used to transmit payments and credit to keep steps to opening up the financial system after sections were lifted on implementation of a nuclear agreement . reporter: banks can accessed swift as of today. we should note that our banks were subject to sanctions and needed to prepare the necessary infrastructure, and they managed to get ready by today. they can now be part of swift. has been a driver on the global markets this monday. new data showing that factor activity contracted for the sixth straight month in january, another sign of slowdown in the economy. focusnking sector was in with losses of about 1.5%.
wall street has also been trading lower. the nasdaq has picked up above the flatlined there. manufacturing in the united states shrank for the fourth month in a row. 1% in december. crude oil prices dropped about 5% this session. cap for a look at some of the other business headlines now. 21horities in china arrested people suspected of running a ponzi scheme. chinese media reported that the online lender scammed nearly one million investors of $7.5 billion. it is the country's biggest such scammed today -- to date. ballarat is axing more than 2.5 thousand job -- two and a half thousand jobs in an effort to cut costs. the french maker of high-strength steel is the latest to suffer from a global
slide in energy prices. it said it would try to raise billion euros in equity sales. puerto rico is trying to restructure a deal on its debt load. it moved to cut a $9 billion billion its debt -- $49 chunk of its debt in half. it would be dependent on future growth. has opened the doors of its first-ever factory in china come part of its partnership with a local manufacturer. china is not extensible market but a strategic one. one of the last western auto giants to put down roots in china. reporter: cutting the ribbon on its first car factory in china. was contentenault to be a marginal player in china, leaving it to its japanese alliance partner
nissan. the new factory, a joint factor -- joint venture with a chinese benefactor, will be able to produce up to 150,000 vehicles, with sales of 20 million cars a year, reporter: betting big -- with sales of 20 million cars a year, renault is betting big on the auto market. ' marketlly, renault shares close to 3.5%s. lateter: but renault's entry into the field comes at a time of slowing growth in china. for the past six month, which has sent jitters throughout the world stock market. while car sales reached a new high in 2015, many analysts believe that growth is unsustainable. renault's catch up strategies to bet on suvs. they account for one third of the chinese market, and sales
are increasing at a rate approaching 50%. renault also sees an opportunity for its electric cars. china needs to improve its air quality at cut pollution and has indicated an interest in promoting greener vehicles. will be often just under an hour's time to give you the closing figures on wall street. before that, let's look at how it open. miss from the piggy fromy- - miss the muppets to get the trading day underway. i adored being at the new york stock exchange, but where is the gift shop? i want to pick up one of those ipos i've heard so much about. kate: she is there to celebrate a new season of "the muppets" on abc. catherine: very happy to have
02/01/16 02/01/16 [captioning made possible by democracy now!] amy: from pacifica, this is democracy now! >> let me just say this, when we began this campaign, we were at 3% in the polls, we were 50 points behind hillary clinton. today, as you have indicated, we are no connect. i think we have a real shot to win this. >> i know what it takes because of the incredible experience i have had over the years, to see the kind of challenges that come he